Addressing the Consequences of Gender-Based Violence in Guatemala Through Behavioral Systems Modeling
Country: Guatemala | Year: 2024
Approach: Behavioral Systems
Overview
Gender-based violence (GBV) in Guatemala is a deeply rooted issue that has persisted despite numerous policies and programs. Traditional linear approaches, such as point-in-time interventions and linear theories of change, have often failed to address the multifaceted nature of GBV effectively. These methods struggle to account for the complex interactions and feedback loops that define real-world systems. Instead of fostering meaningful change, they frequently produce unintended consequences or fail to scale their impact sustainably.
sistemaFutura is addressing these challenges in a new way, through the integration of behavioral science and computational systems modeling. Unlike linear approaches, this method identifies the dynamic interactions and decision-making processes driving GBV within Guatemala. By focusing on key leverage points and analyzing the potential outcomes of various interventions, coordinated strategies could be created to achieve systemic change and lasting impact.
High GBV Prevalence:
Like many countries, Guatemala faces high rates of GBV. According to MSPAS (2015), approximately 1 in 12 women and girls experience physical or sexual violence by an intimate partner each year.
Complex Challenges
Underreporting in Vulnerable Communities:
Indigenous women, who represent 40% of the population, are disproportionately affected. Violence by family members or strangers in these communities is pervasive but less likely to be documented due to systemic discrimination and lack of access to resources.
Cultural and Structural Barriers:
The societal normalization of violence, combined with a culture of impunity, prevents many survivors from seeking help.
Fragmented Policies:
Isolated strategies fail to address the interconnected nature of GBV, resulting in limited behavioral change and reduced trust in institutions.
Cycles of Abuse:
Corruption, resource scarcity, and systemic inefficiencies trap survivors in patterns of violence with little hope of escape.
Our Approach
Our work in Guatemala provides a clear example of the behavioral systems approach in action. By engaging over 80 stakeholders, including government officials, healthcare providers, and civil society organizations, we identified systemic barriers and mapped the feedback loops that sustain harmful behaviors. This fieldwork informed computational models that simulated various intervention scenarios, revealing critical points where coordinated strategies could create lasting change.
Extensive interviews and workshops with over 80 stakeholders, including government officials, healthcare providers, and civil society organizations.
Mapping decision-making processes and interactions among key actors to identify feedback loops that sustain harmful behaviors.
Simulating the behavior of the system under various intervention scenarios to test effectiveness and identify unintended consequences.
Collaborating with stakeholders to co-create ensemble approaches tailored to the Guatemalan context.
The Impact
Leverage point: Reporting and Retaliation
Our analysis revealed that well-meaning policies often unintentionally perpetuate harm. For instance, in many contexts, mandatory reporting of abuse is essential; in Guatemala, a mandatory reporting process in the healthcare system can trigger retaliatory violence, because of a broader lack of legal investigation, prosecution and protective measures. This deters victims from seeking assistance. Moreover, isolated policies fail to address GBV's interconnected nature, with limited behavioral change and reduced trust in institutions.
A randomized controlled trial (RCT) and mixed-methods evaluation demonstrated:
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Increased help-seeking: More survivors used anonymous reporting mechanisms.
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Lower retaliation risks: Protective measures reduced revictimization cases.
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Higher institutional trust: Survivors showed greater confidence in healthcare and support services.
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Greater service utilization: Uptake of legal aid and mental health services improved.
Some opportunities for change identified in this project included:​
Survivor-Driven and Anonymous Reporting Mechanisms
To reduce the risk of retaliation and foster trust, survivors should be able to report incidents safely and anonymously. This process should respect the agency and autonomy of survivors to determine what happens with their case. If accessible reporting mechanisms are provided in health centers and community settings, it can provide a pathway for survivors to report abuse, while pairing them with support.
Community Engagement
Community health workers play a vital role in overcoming systemic barriers, acting as trusted intermediaries to improve access to healthcare and strengthen connections between victims and institutions. Collaboration between local leaders, healthcare providers, and survivors can foster culturally sensitive interventions. Similarly, grassroots support systems can help reduce stigma and encourage help-seeking.
System-Wide Coordination
Addressing gender-based violence requires moving beyond fragmented policies to create a unified strategy. For example, one issue facing Guatemala is a lack of transportation for survivors to health centers; however, if this is addressed in isolation of the reporting mechanisms, it will likely have little effort or even be harmful. Behavioral systems can identify leverage points for interventions to disrupt harmful cycles, and facilitate coordination among stakeholders amplify the impact of individual efforts and achieve long-term change.